Dr Nic Geard

  • Room: Level: 06 Room: 6.18
  • Building: Doug McDonell Building
  • Campus: Parkville

Research interests

  • Infectious Disease Modelling (influenza, pertussis, Ebola, demography, individual based models)

Personal webpage



I studied for a Bachelor of Science at the University of Queensland (UQ), graduating with first class Honours in computer science in 2001. Continuing at UQ, I gained a PhD in complex systems simulation in 2006, supervised by Prof Janet Wiles. During my PhD I used computational simulation models to investigate the role that developmental constraints play in orienting evolutionary processes. Between 2007 and 2010 I was employed as a researcher with the Science and Engineering of Natural Systems Group at the University of Southampton, working with Prof Seth Bullock to develop simulation models of dynamic processes on social networks.

In July 2011, I joined the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, where I am part of the Modelling and Simulation group in the Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, where I am supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Fellowship. I am a CI on a National Health & Medical Research Council Centre of Research Excellence on Policy-Relevant Infectious Disease Simulation and Mathematical Modelling.

I will take up a position as Senior Lecturer with the Department of Computing and Information Systems at The University of Melbourne in October 2016.

Recent publications

  1. Xu, Z.; Graves, PM.; Lau, CL.; Clements, A.; Geard, N.; Glass, K. GEOFIL: A spatially-explicit agent-based modelling framework for predicting the long-term transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis in American Samoa. Epidemics. 2019. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.12.003
  2. Chisholm, RH.; Campbell, PT.; Wu, Y.; Tong, SYC.; Mcvernon, J.; Geard, N. Implications of asymptomatic carriers for infectious disease transmission and control. Royal Society Open Science. ROYAL SOC. 2018, Vol. 5, Issue 2. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.172341
  3. Campbell, PT.; Frost, H.; Smeesters, PR.; Kado, J.; Good, MF.; Batzloff, M.; Geard, N.; Mcvernon, J.; Steer, A. Investigation of group A Streptococcus immune responses in an endemic setting, with a particular focus on J8. Vaccine. ELSEVIER SCI LTD. 2018, Vol. 36, Issue 50, pp. 7618-7624. DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.10.091
  4. Dias, A.; Geard, N.; Campbell, PT.; Warr, D.; Mcvernon, J. Quantity or quality? Assessing relationships between perceived social connectedness and recorded encounters. PloS one. PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. 2018, Vol. 13, Issue 11. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0208083
  5. Xu, Z.; Glass, K.; Lau, CL.; Geard, N.; Graves, P.; Clements, A. A Synthetic Population for Modelling the Dynamics of Infectious Disease Transmission in American Samoa. Scientific Reports. NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. 2017, Vol. 7, Issue 1. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-17093-8
  6. Black, AJ.; Geard, N.; Mccaw, JM.; Mcvernon, J.; Ross, JV. Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies. Epidemics. ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. 2017, Vol. 19, pp. 61-73. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.004
  7. Campbell, PT.; Mcvernon, J.; Geard, N. Determining the Best Strategies for Maternally Targeted Pertussis Vaccination Using an Individual-Based Model. American Journal of Epidemiology. OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC. 2017, Vol. 186, Issue 1, pp. 109-117. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwx002
  8. Vino, T.; Singh, GR.; Davision, B.; Campbell, PT.; Lydeamore, MJ.; Robinson, A.; Mcvernon, J.; Tong, SYC.; Geard, N. Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases. PeerJ. PEERJ INC. 2017, Vol. 5, Issue 10. DOI: 10.7717/peerj.3958
  9. Campbell, PT.; Mcvernon, J.; Shrestha, N.; Nathan, PM.; Geard, N. Who's holding the baby? A prospective diary study of the contact patterns of mothers with an infant. BMC Infectious Diseases. BIOMED CENTRAL LTD. 2017, Vol. 17, Issue 1. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2735-8
  10. Campbell, PT.; Mcvernon, J.; Mcintyre, P.; Geard, N. Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program. Clinical Infectious Diseases. OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC. 2016, Vol. 63, Issue suppl 4, pp. S213-S220. DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciw520
  11. Moss, R.; Hickson, RI.; Mcvernon, J.; Mccaw, JM.; Hort, K.; Black, J.; Madden, JR.; Tran, NH.; Mcbryde, ES.; Geard, N. Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. 2016, Vol. 10, Issue 9. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005018
  12. Rolls, DA.; Geard, NL.; Warr, DJ.; Nathan, PM.; Robins, GL.; Pattison, PE.; Mccaw, JM.; Mcvernon, J. Social encounter profiles of greater Melbourne residents, by location - a telephone survey. BMC Infectious Diseases. BIOMED CENTRAL LTD. 2015, Vol. 15, Issue 1. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-015-1237-9
  13. Geard, N.; Glass, K.; Mccaw, JM.; Mcbryde, ES.; Korb, KB.; Keeling, MJ.; Mcvernon, J. The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population. Epidemics. ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. 2015, Vol. 13, pp. 56-64. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.08.002
  14. Ragonnet, R.; Trauer, JM.; Denholm, JT.; Geard, NL.; Hellard, M.; Mcbryde, ES. Vaccination Programs for Endemic Infections: Modelling Real versus Apparent Impacts of Vaccine and Infection Characteristics. Scientific Reports. NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. 2015, Vol. 5, Issue 1. DOI: 10.1038/srep15468
  15. Dorin, A.; Geard, N. The Practice of Agent-Based Model Visualization. Artificial Life. MIT PRESS. 2014, Vol. 20, Issue 2, pp. 271-289. DOI: 10.1162/ARTL_a_00129
  16. Korb, KB.; Geard, N.; Dorin, A. A Bayesian Approach to the Validation of Agent-Based Models. . Springer. 2013, Vol. 44, pp. 255-269. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-31140-6_14
  17. Jacyno, M.; Bullock, S.; Geard, N.; Payne, TR.; Luck, M. Self-organizing agent communities for autonomic resource management. Adaptive Behavior. SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD. 2013, Vol. 21, Issue 1, pp. 3-28. DOI: 10.1177/1059712312462247
  18. Geard, N.; Mccaw, JM.; Dorin, A.; Korb, KB.; Mcvernon, J. Synthetic Population Dynamics: A Model of Household Demography. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. J A S S S. 2013, Vol. 16, Issue 1. DOI: 10.18564/jasss.2098
  19. Geard, N.; Bullock, S.; Lohaus, R.; Azevedo, RBR.; Wiles, J. Developmental Motifs Reveal Complex Structure in Cell Lineages. Complexity. WILEY-BLACKWELL. 2011, Vol. 16, Issue 4, pp. 48-57. DOI: 10.1002/cplx.20341
  20. Bryden, J.; Funk, S.; Geard, N.; Bullock, S.; Jansen, VAA. Stability in flux: community structure in dynamic networks. Journal of The Royal Society Interface. ROYAL SOC. 2011, Vol. 8, Issue 60, pp. 1031-1040. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2010.0524

View a full list of publications on the University of Melbourne’s ‘Find An Expert’ profile